The U.S. Sentiment Signal updates to 28 out of 100 for the July reading, up from 27 in June and 26 in May. Two consecutive monthly increases follow four months of decline. The composition beneath the headline has not changed: no indicator is on track, two are at risk, and eight are off track. All three categories remain off track, with Economic Health at 38, Government Trust at 19, and Social Confidence at 17. The improvement is real and it is narrow.
This month's update also includes a revision. We completed an audit of the survey series that have no public API, replacing modeled values with readings published by Gallup, the Conference Board, and the University of Michigan back through 2025. The revision moves the June composite to 27 from the 25 we published last month and May to 26, which makes May the trough on the revised series. Each affected point on the indicator pages now cites its published source.
The July increase came from household sentiment. The University of Michigan's preliminary July reading rose to 54.4 from a 49.5 June final, a gain of nearly five points in one month, though still at a level historically associated with recessions. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index improved to −35 from −38. The hard economic data held steady beneath it: the unemployment rate is 4.2%, average unemployment duration is 25.5 weeks, and CPI stands at 332.6 on the 1982–84 base. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index softened to 91.2 in June from 92.2; its July release arrives on the 28th.
The trust series did not participate in the improvement. Congressional approval is 12%, its May reading and the latest Gallup has published. Presidential approval is at 39.6% on the current polling average. Pew's trust-in-federal-government series holds at 17%, near the bottom of its nearly seven-decade history. Gallup's life-satisfaction measure stands at 29% from January, the most recent published month. Government Trust at 19 and Social Confidence at 17 are the two lowest category scores in the composite, and neither has a fresher survey pending before August.
Two months of increase from a twenty-year low is a change in direction, not a recovery. The gap between steady labor data and depressed sentiment, the configuration we described in June, is still the defining feature of the series. If the sentiment surveys continue to climb toward their historical ranges while the labor data holds, the composite will follow. If the trust series stay where they are, they cap the recovery low. The Analysis view shows the full revised trajectory, and each indicator page carries its underlying series with provenance attached.