The U.S. Sentiment Signal updates to 29 out of 100 for the August reading. No indicator is on track, three are at risk, and seven are off track. All three categories remain in the red, with Economic Health at 37, Government Trust at 24, and Social Confidence at 17. The headline is one point below July, but the more useful way to read this month is a plateau: after two months of recovery from the May low of 26, the composite has settled just under 30.
This month's update includes corrections to the published record. Gallup's July release put its Economic Confidence Index at −31 for July and stated June at −38; the values we had carried for those months, −35 and −33, came from secondary reporting and did not survive verification against Gallup's own publication. Gallup has also now published congressional approval for June, at 15%, and July, at 16%, months that previously had no reading. The University of Michigan revised its July sentiment figure to a 55.2 final from the 54.4 preliminary we reported. With these in the series, June re-scores to 28 and July to 30. The dated articles for those months stand as written; this note is the record of the change.
The August decline came from the same place July's increase did. The University of Michigan's preliminary August reading fell to 51.0 from the 55.2 July final, giving back most of the prior month's gain in a single release. The survey period caught renewed concern about prices after a quiet July inflation print. The hard data beneath it held. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in July, average unemployment duration eased to 24.9 weeks, and CPI stands at 332.8 on the 1982–84 base, flat for three months running. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index came in at 90.8 for July, a modest step down from a June that was revised up to 92.2.
The trust series, absent from every improvement this year, finally moved. Congressional approval has climbed for three consecutive readings, from 10% in April to 12% in May, 15% in June, and 16% in July. The level remains dismal by any historical standard, and the gain looks more like a rebound from a shutdown-driven floor than a change in public regard. Presidential approval sits at 39.6% on the current polling average. Pew's trust-in-federal-government series holds at 17%, and Gallup's life-satisfaction measure stands at 29% from January, still the most recent published month for that series.
Two releases land before the September cycle: the Conference Board's August reading on the 25th and Michigan's August final on the 28th. If the Michigan final confirms the preliminary pullback, the composite enters autumn where it started the summer, in the high twenties, with steady labor data underneath and depressed survey readings on top. That configuration has now held long enough to be the story itself. The Analysis view carries the full revised trajectory, and each indicator page cites the published source behind every point.