The U.S. Sentiment Signal updates to 28 out of 100 for September, unchanged from the revised August reading. No indicator is on track. Two are at risk, and eight are off track. Economic Health stands at 35. Government Trust is at 23, while Social Confidence remains at 17. The composite has now spent four months between 28 and 30. The recovery from the May low has stalled.
This month's update includes the final August survey readings and newly released September data. The University of Michigan revised its August Consumer Sentiment Index to 51.7 from the 51.0 preliminary reading. Its September preliminary reading then fell to 47.8. The Conference Board put August Consumer Confidence at 89.4 and revised July down to 90.2 from 90.8. With the completed August data in the series, the August composite re-scores to 28 from the 29 shown in last month's dated article. That article stands as published; this note records the change.
The economic data continue to separate from the household surveys. Unemployment held at 4.1% in August. Consumer prices rose to 334.131 on the 1982–84 base, and average unemployment duration increased to 26.3 weeks. Those readings leave the labor indicators stronger than the measures of how households feel. Michigan's September reading of 47.8 sits below its June level and far below the threshold associated with healthy household demand. The Economic Outlook Index remains at −31, the latest Gallup has published.
The trust indicators remain near the bottom of their historical ranges. Congressional approval rose to 17% in August, its fourth increase from the 10% April low. Presidential approval is 38.3% on the current polling average. Pew's trust-in-federal-government measure holds at 17%. Gallup's life-satisfaction series remains at 29% from January, its latest verified reading. The improvement in congressional approval is worth noting, though it has not changed the standing of Government Trust.
The September reading leaves the central fact intact. Labor conditions are steady, while public confidence remains weak. Michigan's final September result is due later this month, followed by the Conference Board's September release. Those surveys will show whether the latest decline is another short move inside the recent range or the start of a renewed fall. The Analysis view carries the revised history, and each indicator page cites the published source behind its latest reading.